In Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, citizens and authorities had several days to brace for a looming disaster in the form of this year’s horrendous hurricanes. In hindsight, they didn’t do enough. There are things we can learn form their experiences.
Thanks to modern atmospheric science, the Caribbean islands, Texas and Florida all were put on warning about giant storms while they were still far off in the Atlantic. In each case, the hurricanes’ exact tracks gradually came into focus in forecasting models, with the odds of harm spiking from very little to very likely. It was like watching from a distance as a drunk driver swerved back and forth across the highway before finally crashing into a gas pump.
Until advances in geology and our understanding of earth’s plate tectonics initiated in the 1990s by Prof. Brian Atwater, our coast was completely ignorant about subduction-zone earthquakes and tsunamis. It as if we were Caribbean villagers who not only didn’t know about the hurricane barreling toward us from just over the horizon, but didn’t even suspect such disasters were capable of happening. Atwater and his colleagues opened our eyes.
After 20 years of research, scientists believe that in the next 30 years, the Pacific Northwest has about a 10 percent chance of a magnitude 8 to 9 megathrust earthquake on the Cascadia subduction zone. Ten percent isn’t very frightening and 30 years is more than a third of an average American lifetime. Odds are pretty good that we living here today will be long gone before this epic cataclysm occurs. On the other hand, when it was still forming in the Atlantic, the odds were remote of Hurricane Maria hammering Puerto Rico. Yet it happened.
Average people — including our elected leaders — are bad at assessing risk and understanding probabilities. On top of that weakness, there are inherent limits to how much to prepare for threats that are legitimate but which have uncertain or distant timelines. We all know we’re going to need to retire someday, but how many make enough effort to save for that eventuality? It’s even easier to procrastinate about disaster preparedness.
The mess in Puerto Rico informs us that even with the vast assets of federal government, getting help to where it’s needed can take weeks after a worst-case disaster. It’s possible the Trump administration or territorial government could be doing better, but even the most competent agencies are going to be hard pressed to deliver medical triage, potable water, rations and fuel to remote areas where highways and bridges have been destroyed.
On this coast, we and agencies can internalize this lesson. We face an even worse challenge, in that our low-lying areas will have to abandoned in a hurry and will be uninhabitable after a quake and tsunami, perhaps for months. Collecting supplies at homes near sea level may be a waste of time.
State and federal agencies need to systematically pre-stage drinking water, long shelf life foods and basic medical supplies in secure strategic locations on high ground. Former Pacific County Sheriff John Didion used to envision stockpiling barrels of peanut butter in old cargo containers up in the woods, saying quake survivors might not enjoy the taste, but would appreciate that it kept them alive while waiting for air drops and naval rescue ships. He wasn’t far wrong. For a small fraction of the federal funds once spent on fallout shelters, sites in the Northwest’s coastal hills could be prepared to avoid deaths and alleviate suffering. Helicopter pads, airstrips, wi-fi hot spots and generators are among other things that could be dealt with in advance.
Other lessons from this year’s hurricanes:
• Money spent on science saves lives. The behavior of subduction zones still isn’t well understood. Perhaps research can provide reliable clues about when the Cascadia zone is about to break loose.
• Even in the worst circumstances, individual actions do make a difference. The enormity of threats can’t be allowed to paralyze us into inaction. It’s up to each of us to help our neighbors whenever need arises, and to take common sense precautions on our own behalf — everything from keeping bottled water on hand to signing up for first aid and Community Emergency Response Team classes.
Washington state continues making some preparations for tsunamis. A new tsunami warning siren is set for installation at the Port of Chinook at the end of October or first few days of November. Although of little use for a nearby subduction-zone disaster, the sirens can tell people to get away from the water if a tsunami is bearing down on us from across the ocean.
The Great Washington ShakeOut event is Oct. 19 — “a time when communities, families, businesses and schools practice their drop, cover and hold on skills and do on more thing, such as adding to their emergency supplies.”
Last year, more than 1.1 million residents signed up for the state’s largest earthquake drill. Registration at shakeout.org/washington isn’t required, but helps the Washington Emergency Management Division tally up how many are participating.
Question and Answer sessions with earthquake experts will be done using Facebook Live and WEMD’s Nextdoor account in the days before ShakeOut. On Oct. 19, from noon to 2 p.m., earthquake preparedness experts from the WEMD will join scientists with the Washington Department of Natural Resources and the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network to gather online for a Reddit Ask Me Anything-an online Q&A. The public is invited to ask questions at www.reddit.com/r/IAmA.