PORTLAND - What a difference a few weeks can make in the climate business! The National Weather Service has abruptly changed its mind over the odds of a colder, wetter-than-average winter to come.

Its June forecast, which called for a 70 percent chance of a La Nina event showing up in a few months, was based largely on extensive ocean cooling in the central and eastern tropical Pacific observed last May. The forecast was featured last month in Science magazine.

But the forecast wasn't even official before the ocean began warming to normal levels for this time of year. At a July El Nino/Southern Oscillation diagnostic discussion, scientists at the Climate Prediction Center said the latest sea surface and subsurface temperature data do not support the development of La Nina conditions over the next few months.

Instead, the model forecasts "indicate considerable uncertainty during the next few months," said Vernon Kousky, ENSO specialist at NOAA. Most scientists are predicting near-neutral conditions during the last half of 2003.

-NW Fishletter produced by Energy NewsData

Recommended for you

(0) comments

Welcome to the discussion.

Keep it Clean. Please avoid obscene, vulgar, lewd, racist or sexually-oriented language.
Don't Threaten. Threats of harming another person will not be tolerated.
Be Truthful. Don't knowingly lie about anyone or anything.
Be Nice. No racism, sexism or any sort of -ism that is degrading to another person.
Be Proactive. Use the 'Report' link on each comment to let us know of abusive posts.
Share with Us. We'd love to hear eyewitness accounts, the history behind an article.